ABSTRACT
The True Infection Rate (TIR) in the whole population of each country and the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are unknown although they are important parameters. We devised a simple method to infer TIR and IFR based on the open data. The prevalence rate of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests among the population (Examination Rate;ER) and the positive rate of PCR tests (Infection Rate;IR) for 66 countries were picked up at a website 5 times from April 10th to June 13th, 2020, and the trajectory of each country was drawn over the IR vs. ER plot. IR and ER showed a strong negative correlation for some countries, and TIR was estimated by extrapolating the regression line when the correlation coefficient was between -0.99 and -1. True/Identified Case Ratio (TICR) and IFR were also calculated using the estimated TIR. The estimated TIR well coincided with local antibody surveys. Estimated IFR took on a wide range of values up to 10%: generally high in the Western countries. The estimated IFR of Singapore was very low (0.018%), which may be related to the reported gene mutation causing the attenuation of the viral virulence.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: We sought to explore the prevalence and immediate clinical implications of acute myocardial injury in a cohort of patients with COVID-19 in a region of China where medical resources are less stressed than in Wuhan (the epicentre of the pandemic). METHODS: We prospectively assessed the medical records, laboratory results, chest CT images and use of medication in a cohort of patients presenting to two designated covid-19 treatment centres in Sichuan, China. Outcomes of interest included death, admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), need for mechanical ventilation, treatment with vasoactive agents and classification of disease severity. Acute myocardial injury was defined by a value of high-sensitivity troponin T (hs-TnT) greater than the normal upper limit. RESULTS: A total of 101 cases were enrolled from January to 10 March 2020 (average age 49 years, IQR 34-62 years). Acute myocardial injury was present in 15.8% of patients, nearly half of whom had a hs-TnT value fivefold greater than the normal upper limit. Patients with acute myocardial injury were older, with a higher prevalence of pre-existing cardiovascular disease and more likely to require ICU admission (62.5% vs 24.7%, p=0.003), mechanical ventilation (43.5% vs 4.7%, p<0.001) and treatment with vasoactive agents (31.2% vs 0%, p<0.001). Log hs-TnT was associated with disease severity (OR 6.63, 95% CI 2.24 to 19.65), and all of the three deaths occurred in patients with acute myocardial injury. CONCLUSION: Acute myocardial injury is common in patients with COVID-19 and is associated with adverse prognosis.